With two weeks left until Election Day, 35 million Americans having already voted, and most polls showing Joe Biden leading President Trump, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told “Hannity” Tuesday the incumbent is likely to be reelected.
“I see the president winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly told host Sean Hannity.
The Georgia-based Trafalgar Group drew national attention in 2016 as one of the few pollsters showing Trump leading in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of voting day. Trump swept all three states en route to his stunning win over Hillary Clinton.
This year, Cahaly said he was “not even going to try” to predict when results will be finalized due to the large amount of mail-in balloting necessitated by the coronavirus pandemic.
However, the chief pollster prediced that Trump will hold Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia — all states where most polls show a statistical dead heat or even a slight Biden lead.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote,” Cahaly explained. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily … These people … are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this … you’re not going to get honest answers.”
Meanwhile, the ongoing controversy over Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings could still upend most pundits’ predictions, the pollster said.
“If the president uses this effectively at the debate [Thursday] when a more bipartisan audience is paying attention and puts [Biden] on the spot, I think Biden might crack, kind of like he did in the primaries,” Cahaly said. “And if that happens, well, then the mainstream media is going to have to cover it.”