Democrats have emerged with a net gain of at least 35 seats with all but six of the 435 House of Representatives races called. This is a dozen more than they needed to take back the majority.
As of 11:00 pm eastern on Wednesday, a week and a day after the polls closed, Democrats have won 230 seats and Republicans have won 199. Republicans lead in four of the undecided contests, while Democrats lead in two of those races. All six undecided races–TX-23, CA-39, CA-45, UT-04, GA-07, ME-02–are in districts currently held by the GOP
Should those undecided races be decided in favor of the current leaders, Democrats will end up with 232 seats, a net gain of 37, and Republicans will end up with 203 seats when the 116th Congress convenes in Washington this January. The Democrat majority of 29 seats will be less than the 45 seat majority the Republicans enjoyed in the 115th Congress.
While not exactly the “blue wave” predicted by the mainstream media and most Democrats for much of 2018, the final tally is a more significant blow to Republicans than what looked to be a “blue rivulet” on election night.
The current net gain of 35 seats for Democrats consists of 38 flips from Republican to Democrat and three flips from Democrat to Republican.
Republicans performed well in some states–like Ohio and North Carolina, where every Republican held seat was won by a Republican–and poorly in other states–like New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and California.
Pennsylvania was a special case, as several of the flips from Republican to Democrat can be attributable to the unprecedented decision made by the Democratically controlled Pennsylvania Supreme Court earlier this year to gerrymander the state’s congressional districts in favor of Democrats.
A state by state breakdown of the 38 Republican to Democrat flips, and the three Democrat to Republican flips is shown here below: (Note, unless otherwise specified, all flips are Republican to Democrat.)
New Jersey: 4 FLIPS
NJ-02: Democrat Jeff Van Drew defeated Republican Seth Grossman, 52 percent to 46 percent.
NJ-03: Democrat Andy Kim defeated incumbent Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-NJ), 49.9 percent to 48.8 percent.
NJ-07: Democrat Tom Malinowski defeated incumbent Rep. Leonard Lance (R-NJ), 51 percent to 47 percent.
NJ-11: Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jay Webber 56 percent to 43 percent.
California: 4 FLIPS
CA-10: Democrat Josh Harder defeated incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham (R-CA), 51 percent to 49 percent.
CA-25: Democrat Katie Hill defeated Republican Steve Knight, 53 percent to 47 percent.
CA-48: Democrat Harley Rouda defeated incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), 52 percent to 48 percent.
CA-49: Democrat Mike Levin defeated Republican Diane Harkey, 55 percent to 45 percent.
New York: 3 FLIPS
NY-11: Democrat Max Rose defeated incumbent Rep. Dan Donovan (R-NY), 53 percent to 47 percent.
NY-19: Democrat Antonio Delgado defeated incumbent Rep. John Faso (R-NY), 50 percent to 57 percent.
NY-22: Democrat Anthony Brindisi defeated incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY), 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent.
Pennsylvania: 4 FLIPS Republican to Democrat 1 FLIP Democrat to Republican, Net Democrat gain = 3. (New gerrymandered districts, so direct comparisons to 115th Congress districts do not apply)
PA-14: (Democrat to Republican FLIP) Republican Guy Reschenthaler defeated Democrat Bibiana Boerio, 58 percent to 42 percent.
PA-04: Democrat Madeleine Dean defeated Republican Dan David, 63 percent to 37 percent.
PA-06: Democrat Chrissy Houlahan defeated Republican Greg McCauley, 59 percent to 41 percent.
PA-07: Democrat Susan Wild defeated Republican Marty Nothstein, 53 percent to 43 percent.
PA-17: Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA-18) defeated Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-PA-12), 56 percent to 44 percent.
Virginia: 3 FLIPS
VA-02: Democrat Elaine Luria defeated incumbent Rep. Scott Taylor (R-VA), 51 percent to 49 percent.
VA-07: Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated incumbent Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA), 50 percent to 48 percent.
VA-10: Democrat Jennifer Wexton defeated incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA), 56 percent to 44 percent.
Michigan 2 FLIPS
MI-08: Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated incumbent Rep. Mike Bishop (R-MI), 51 percent to 47 percent.
MI-11: Democrat Haley Stevens defeated Republican Lena Epstein, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Illinois: 2 FLIPS
IL-06: Democrat Sean Casten defeated incumbent Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL), 53 percent to 47 percent.
IL-14: Democrat Lauren Underwood defeated Republican Randy Hultgren, 52 percent to 48 percent.
Texas: 2 FLIPS
TX-07: Democrat Lizzie Fletcher defeated incumbent Rep. John Culberson (R-TX), 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent.
TX-32: Democrat Collin Allred defeated incumbent Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), 52 percent to 46 percent.
Iowa: 2 FLIPS
IA-01: Democrat Abby Finkenauer defeated incumbent Rep. Rod Blum (R-IA), 51 percent to 46 percent.
IA-03: Democrat Dave Loebsack defeated Republican Christopher Peters, 55 percent to 43 percent.
Florida: 2 FLIPS
FL-26: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated incumbent Rep. Carolos Curbelo (R-FL), 51 percent to 49 percent.
FL-27: Democrat Donna Shalala defeated Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, 52 percent to 46 percent.
Minnesota: 2 FLIPS Republican to Democrat and 2 FLIPS Democrat to Republican, Net Democrat gain =0
MN-01: (Democrat to Republican FLIP) Republican Jim Hagedorn defeated Democrat Dan Feehan, 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.
MN-08: (Democrat to Republican FLIP) Republican Pete Stauber defeated Democrat Joe Radinovich, 51 percent to 45 percent.
MN-02: Democrat Angie Craig defeated incumbent Rep. Jason Lewis (R-MN), 53 percent to 47 percent.
MN-03: Democrat Dean Phillips defeated incumbent Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-MN), 56 percent to 44 percent.
States with Only 1 FLIP
Arizona AZ-02: Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Republican Lea Marquez Peterson, 54 percent to 46 percent.
Colorado CO-06: Democrat Jason Crow defeated incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO), 54 percent to 43 percent.
Georgia GA-06: Democrat Lucy McBath defeated incumbent Rep. Karen Handel (R-GA), 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent.
Kansas KS-03: Democrat Sharice Davids defeated incumbent Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-KS), 53 percent to 44 percent.
New Mexico NM-02: Democrat Xochitl Torres Small defeated Republican Yvette Herrell, 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent.
Oklahoma OK-05: Democrat Kendra Horn defeated Republican Steve Russell, 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent.
South Carolina SC-01: Democrat Joe Cunningham defeated Republican Katie Arrington, 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent.
Washington WA-08: Democrat Kim Schrier defeated Republican Dino Rossi, 53 percent to 47 percent.