In an article published Friday, CNBC’s John Schoen and Jordan Malter warned that Democrats taking the House would allow the left to stall Trump’s policies on trade, taxes, immigration, and healthcare.
This is the most likely outcome, according to polls. It would leave Democrats in charge of only one chamber of Congress, but that’s enough to stall any major legislation that Trump wants to advance, including economic policies around taxes, immigration, health care or trade. That could be OK if the economy keeps rolling ahead. But it also could raise the risk of confidence-rattling government inaction — government shutdowns, debt ceiling fights, and more.
Meanwhile, a GOP victory would “give added momentum to Trump agenda” and “could lead to more pro-growth policies.”
“The policy bottom line is clear, especially once the U.S. midterm elections are over. The priority should be reinforcing pro-growth policies, including by moving on infrastructure enhancements and modernization,” El-Erian wrote.
El-Erian is too circumspect to spell out exactly what this means. But as CNBC points out, the post-election pro-growth policies are unlikely if Democrats take the House. Instead, they will focus on stalling the policies that have created the booming Trump economy.